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Brexit

Just leaving this here... I wrote it in 2016. Six years' later, in 2022, we can now see hard evidence of the damage that Brexit is doing to the UK. I rest my case.


Four and a half years' ago I asked the question: "As Britain prepares to exit from the European Union, will we find ourselves in two years' time stuck to the bottom of the pan and will Britain be toast? Or will we be smiling, and say byebye to EU regulations whilst sitting down to a great British breakfast of British bacon, British eggs, British tomatoes, British marmalade and the quintessential British cup of tea?"

And I continued: "The bacon may come from a British pig, but its feed could be subject to new tariffs, and vetinary products that keep it healthy will fall out of EU regulatory regimes. Likewise the tomatoes and the marmalade. These changes will have implications for the price we pay and for food safety. Similarly, there will be implications for other industries, as Britain's business lobby, the CBI has said.

Brexit is not just about walking out of the house and slamming the door. It is about fundamental changes to the way our country operates. The EU is an integral part of an international system and breaking away means that a massive web of international business that supports our most basic needs like food, will rip in places we did not even know existed."

I think we now know the answer as we contemplate what it will mean to have 7000 lorries queueing in Kent, and a £15 billion bill to business for customs bureaucracy, in the full knowledge of Russian interference with our democracy and a government willing to break international law. Brexit was about emotive promises that were never going to be deliverable, for reasons that are systemic. The changes I predicted in the second two paragraphs are now making themselves felt.

This blog will explore the ongoing process as the UK makes its final exit from the Single European Market and the policy challenges it raises.

If you are interested in research on Britain's new relationship with Europe, please contact me via the Contact page on this website.

If you are following policy around telecoms and technology issues, you may like my book The Closing of the Net.

As we saw in part 1, the ways that Brexit rips through business models are quite complex. Travelling back in time to a simpler era in 1973 before the UK joined the EEC, does not seem like a practical option for business. Cross-border trade, which was the exception back then, is now the norm. People get on planes for one-day conferences and business meetings. The simple email that was conceived inthe early 1970s has itself been outgunned by the smartphone app. Rules are needed to govern these new practices that in themselves generate unforeseen legal complexities. Being outside the EU will not suddenly drop the UK back into a simple system where it can pull up drawbridge and act as an island. There will be too many wires left dangling.

In part 1 of How Brexit Rips Up Business Models, we considered the effects of a post-Brexit dual compliance regime. Here, in Part 2, we look at some specific aspects of Brexit-imposed changes to cross-border trade and trade in services.

Read more: How Brexit rips up business models Part 2: visas for money and music

Brexit negotiations - Dominic Raab and Michel Barnier - 2018 - and CE mark robot

We cannot just draw a line around these islands and go back to a time past. In 1973 when Britain voted to join what was then the EEC, the email had only just been invented and the Internet wasn't even conceived. In 1992, the Single Market was established and the Internet went commercial. From the mid-1990s, low-cost flights came in and little bags of salad leaves became the norm in our supermarkets. Since then, business has changed to an inter-connected model, underpinned by electronic communications and laws designed to support cross-border trade. Standards matter, not just within State borders, but across borders. The rupture from the Single Market created by Brexit in any form will have massive consequences for industries, both manufacturing and services, that have based their business model on the EU legal framework.

This article - part 1 of 2 - explores the how withdrawing from the EU Single Market will result in a dual-compliance regime. It draws on EU Preparedness Notifications and UK government 'no deal' notices, as well as announcements, media reports and statements from a range of British-based businesses.

Read more: How Brexit rips up business models Part 1: putting back barriers

Giant parrot by tower bridge

How does an obscure article in the Lisbon Treaty obfuscate Britain's efforts to formulate a post-Brexit relationship with the European Union? And what does this have to do with dead parrots?

It was Margaret Thatcher who famously replayed Monty Python's 'dead parrot' sketch at the Tory party conference 28 years ago in 1990. This week, as the Conservative Party gathered in Birmingham for its annual get-together, it would seem a dead parrot is once again at the centre of the debate.

Read more: Norwegian Blue or Super-Canada - is there any life in this parrot?

The British government's White Paper for a new UK -EU partnership edges its way around the strict red lines of a hard Brexit in order to address the complaints of business and keep jobs in this country. It does look rather like a bespoke form of trade agreement. But in trying to frame the proposal such that it could be accepted by the deeply divided Conservative Party, the paper seems to please no-one. So how should we read it?

This post considers whether the White Paper addresses the concerns of British businesses. It suggests that the 'common rulebook' may be a problematic metaphor in an inter-connected 21st century business world.

Read more: Brexit White Paper - a common rulebook for 21st century business?

Galileo, a niche satellite technology programme, has escalated to the top of the Brexit political agenda as Britain and the EU wrangle over access to it. There is a thrilling tension as the two have become locked in an inter-governmental conflict overhung by industrial threats, against a backdrop of science-fiction-like technologies. Galileo symbolises the power of space communications for economic and security policy. And now the EU has signalled a red light to Britain's key demand for full access to a next-generation encrypted service.

This analysis considers the EU's new space programme proposals against Britains demands for inclusion in Galileo's secure PRS service. It draws on the EU Proposal for a Regulation establishing the space programme and the British government's Technical Note: UK Participation in Galileo, with additional input from the just-released EU slides on space-related activities.

Read more: Galileo: EU blasts off to space future but holds UK on red signal

UK EU withdrawal agreement announcement March 2018

A European satellite project unexpectedly finds itself at the uncomfortable end of the divorce wrangles between Britain and the EU. It illustrates the direct and tangible consequences of the government's solid red lines, which put contracts and industry growth at risk. What is really at stake? This article draws on evidence given by the space industry to the House of Lords Select Committee on the European Union, and examines the Co-operation Agreements of Norway and Switzerland on Satellite Navigation Programmes. It views them through the prism of the draft UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement.

*Update 24 April 2018 - the Financial Times is now reporting an 'escalating row' between London and Brussels over Galileo.*

Read more: Galileo satellites illuminate EU-UK divorce tensions

Michel Barnier presents the EU Withdrawal Agreement Brussels 28.02.18

<<On the publication of the draft of the entire EU Withdrawal Agreement, this article investigates the Transition chapter and how far Britain's influence could be written out from the very start. The analysis is based on the text published by the EU, and the British negotiators text which has been circulating online.>>

Will Britain become isolated and not influential, to paraphrase Sir John Major's words from his speech today? There is one aspect of Britain's proposed Transition out of the European Union that risks being overlooked. Britain - its government, businesses and individuals such as academics, NGOs and researchers - could be excluded from EU decision-making bodies, agencies and expert groups from 29 March 2019 during the Transition period. As others have already said, Britain risks becoming a rule-taker, but this goes further. It means Britain stands to lose influence not only in law making and central banking, but regulatory and standards bodies, scientific and security agencies, and a plethora of smaller groups that input to policy-making.

Read more: EU Withdrawal Agreement: a deep and special loss of influence

Theresa May with Jean-Claude Juncker at Brussels press conference after Brexit negotiations in 2017

Brexit means that Britain risks losing access to two vital EU satellite programmes. They deliver key communications technologies to power Mrs May's vision for a 4th industrial revolution. It's a failure to join the policy dots. Has the government lost the signal?

Read more: Ground control to Mrs May - have we lost the signal?

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About Iptegrity

Iptegrity.com is the website of Dr Monica Horten. I am an  independent policy advisor, with expertise in online safety, technology and human rights. I am a published author, and post-doctoral scholar. I hold a PhD from the University of Westminster, and a DipM from the Chartered Institute of Marketing. I cover the UK and EU. I'm a former tech journalist, and an experienced panelist and Chair. My media credits include the BBC, iNews, Times, Guardian and Politico.

Iptegrity.com is made available free of charge for non-commercial use. Please link back and attribute Dr Monica Horten.  Contact me to use any of my content for commercial purposes.